Elizabeth enjoying Passover in Miami Beach. Y’all come on down now…
This month’s edition is dedicating to offering solutions in order to Solve Problems….
Iran…How do you get the Americans to support military action against Iran after being burned in Iraq by an administration that lied about the threat? Bush has to say that the Iranians want the world to become Islamic and openly state and want to (and actually do) kill Americans and now have missiles targeted at Europe which is true. Today they say they want to wipe Israel off the map; why not someone else tomorrow? People made cartoons of Hitler in the 20’s and early 30’s; Iran’s president is getting similar treatment now but he does represent a real threat to the people around him. As I have said earlier, a nuclear Iran will be involved in a war sooner or later, many people will be killed inside Iran and it will drive all the countries around it to go nuclear. The more the government threatens, the more capability they get because they drive the price of oil up and pocket the windfall because people buy it. The Germans are selling them stuff and China and Russia are not interested in the rest of the world if they can profit from it. They must be stopped, even if there is a short-term cost of Iranian lives because whatever happens now will be less than what will happen later and we just can’t afford to be wrong. As long as Iran’s government publicly state that they are prepared to have millions of Iranians die in pursuit of their global jihadist aims, we have to be concerned about this. There is an interesting interview in last week’s Haaretz magazine supplement with Yuval Steinmetz, past chairman of the Knesset Foreign Relations and Intelligence committee. He says that the Mossad will deal with Iran sometime in the next 18 months and that unlike in the Iraq situation, the Israeli intelligence on Iran is solid. Perhaps the goal will be to knock off Iran’s president. Steinmetz is a bit of a lone wolf but is exceedingly knowledgeable and should be paid attention to. A strange story: Bahraini Shiite riots last week were linked to Iran. At a private dinner in Washington organized by a Jewish group, the Bahraini ambassador to the US says his country would go for diplomatic relations with Israel as soon as they signed up with the Palestinians. It seems that if you are an Arab against Iran, you’ll play ball with Israel as the lesser evil.
Iraq…Does it make sense that the Israelis are always announcing targeted killings and have the Hamas on the run? Why can’t the US announce targeted killings of their enemies and get them on the run? I think the US military just isn’t going there. It may not matter — we have made a deal with the Sunnis to get them on board because we’re pulling out no matter what because it is domestically politically untenable to stay in the game (the Republicans are going to take a beating in November if they don’t get out of there), and if the Sunnis don’t start to deal they will be stuck dealing with the Shiites and the Iranians on their own and they are the minority and will have to suffer the consequences.
Oil…The high price is getting people’s goats and the Republicans are going to pay for it at the polls. I’ve always wondered why we don’t just nationalize the Saudi oil fields as a vital national interest or at least get them to lower the price. If the Republicans are so “in” with the Saudis, it’s really hard to tell so I don’t see why we haven’t done something else like take it over. Oh right, we tried that in Iraq and look where it got us……Iraq only helped the drive the price up and Iran is laughing all the way to the bank as they keep pushing the nuclear button….My solution is to get Americans to start buying hybrid cars that wean us off oil and the way to do that is to offer a tax break to the first million people who purchase these cars which will create enough demand to stimulate mass production that will bring down the price for everyone that follows. GE will be a company to watch in terms of producing things and ADM’s price has doubled in the past year. Also watch Israeli company Opti, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They are a leader in using tar sand technology which looks like a promising fuel alternative. People in the industry tell me that there isn’t enough corn to produce enough ethanol to help the US unless they come up with a synthetic alternative but there do seem to be some good choices here and the price of oil has risen to the point where all these alternatives are now financially feasible. This year’s corn harvest is weak; consider buying corn futures amidst all this. As long as the International Atomic Energy Agency says they can’t monitor Iran and that Iran isn’t complying, the price of oil must keep going up because the US won’t be able to escape threatening Iran. In the short term, I’m happy with high oil prices if it will finally get America to change its habits and develop alternatives. So far Bush is investing lightly into this area and the petroleum lobby is very strong so the indications are that nothing will change under this administration. Another reason to consider the Democrats in 2008; the proposal to give people $100 rebate checks to spend on gas was shot down by the public heavily as being akin to a tip to a prostitute.
Israel — A poll taken a week after elections said that 45% of the public were dissatisfied with the election results but that 90% of them would have voted the same way if they could do it all over again. Of the 10% that would have changed their vote, the vast majority went for Labor or Kadima. So what this means is that if everyone could vote over again, the center-left coalition would have received an outright majority. It is no surprise that Shas made a deal with Olmert because no matter what they don’t want to be outside the feeding trough. I expect Olmert’s government to be strong and long-lasting because it is just wall-to-wall with the vested interests that are the aristocracy of that country (ie: no immigrants, Russians, Arabs), and if I were Palestinian I would either (i) realize I am going to have to deal with Olmert and get with the program even if I am Hamas; (ii) declare war because I have nothing to lose anyway; or (iii) keep doing what I’m doing which is basically nothing while the Israelis draw the final map and box me in. The Israelis are publicly stating that they don’t care anymore if kids in Gaza get in the way if the rockets hitting their civilian areas are being launched from Gaza and now that Gaza is its own state the Israelis can and will fire at will. I expect increased targeted assassinations of top leaders in the territories and do not expect Israelis tanks to roll into Palestinian cities, mainly because they are very effective right now at picking off the ones they want without having to bother dealing with occupying cities. I don’t know what the Palestinians will do and to some extent it doesn’t matter because the Israelis seem to know quite well how to take care of their business at this point and are not terribly interested in what the Palestinians do because right now what they are mostly doing is destroying themselves with each other. Why should the Israelis take the bait when one Palestinian faction attacks Israel in order to get Israel to attack the other Palestinian faction, such as Fatah attacking so that Israel will strike at Hamas? Now Al-Qaida is in the territories issuing leaflets threatening assassination of top Palestinian leaders. The reason Jordan cancelled the visit of Hamas leaders recently was word that the Damascus wing of Hamas ordered the assassination in Jordan of a top government minister. Egypt and Jordan are not interested in having Hamas get a foothold in the area and even Saudi Arabia is not lining up to help them. As long as Olmert doesn’t provide an opening, the Arabs are not lining up with Hamas. By the way, close analysis of the election results in Palestine were such that Hamas didn’t do as well as the number of seats they won in the parliament indicated and the last few weeks on campuses the Fatah organizations have been beating the socks off Hamas. On Wolfenson’s resignation: The Israelis were happy to see him go; they felt he was personalizing the issues as if HE were the issue.
Jewish audiences are these days cancelling speakers who talk about Israel and the Middle East and instead are booking comedians. Really. They think that Israel and the Middle East is boring and depressing. On the other hand, today is a big rally in Washington about Darfur in the Sudan and almost every synagogue and Jewish college or organization has people going to demonstrate in favor of the Moslems being mistreated there. Funny world, huh?
US Elections — As I hinted before, the stage is set for the Republicans to take a beating now and in 2008 if only the Democrats would come up with some leadership and stand for something. One Democratic leader says “How can you say we don’t stand for anything? Of course we stand for anything.”
Taxes — Here’s a thought. Most tax deductions under the US tax code only apply to poor and low income families. Once you’re in the middle class you lose all the deductions and if you are in the upper middle class the Alternative Minimum Tax takes them completely away. This year I had no charitable deductions or dependent child deductions because the AMT ate them up. Does this make sense? The government gives poor people incentives to have children but if you are wealthy, it becomes almost a penalty to work because the cost of child care is high and you get no deduction against your income for its costs or the cost of having a child as a dependent. But if you were wealthy, you’d be more likely to have children that are wealthy and that pay taxes as opposed to take services and if you were working you’d pay more taxes. The poor are more likely to have children who need services and the tax credits are not enough to make it worthwhile to work anyway. So why give out all the tax incentives to the poor and make it miserable to work and have children if you’re rich? We have a really stupid system if you think about it….
Trends — The Economist’s survey on New Media correctly shows that the new broadband networks are not just being used for downloading but that people are uploading data and become participants as opposed to simply recipients of information and media content. This is good because people will be less like eggplants in front of their TV’s and more like conversationalists with the media they connect to. I expect within 2-3 years for the New York Times to be read on an ipod-like device. This past week the Times’ published its last TV section — they have become obsolete, just like the financial pages listing yesterday’s closing stock prices.
This coming month your host goes to Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Boston to see what’s new, and reads Ephraim Halevy’s new book about the Mossad’s involvement in foreign policy.
